An Economics Professor’s Reflection on the Economic Crisis

October 20th, 2008

This is part of an email thread that took place last month (starting the night of Bush’s address to the nation regarding the economy), published with permission. Michelle Ranville was the professor for an economics course I took last semester at Old Dominion University. If you happen to go to ODU and need economics credits, I would highly recommend taking her courses.

This is part of the email I sent:

Well, I’m sure you’re aware, and more informed than myself, about the whole economic crisis thing, complete with Presidential address tonight.

We had discussed in class about Bush’s stimulus package being a bad idea, and it made perfect sense about it being a bad idea. Apparently a part of Barack Obama’s idea for a response to the crisis is issuing another stimulus package… I could be wrong about the details of that, but I was curious, if you get a couple minutes at some point, about your thoughts on that… Thanks!

This is her insightful response:

Ah, the economy… Such a poignant topic and one that we are so helpless over at this point — at least as citizens. I saw this $50 billion stimulus package deal that Obama presented. Knowing nothing more about it, I would have to say that it really misses the point. In this situation, this would be equivalent to firing a pellet gun at a charging elephant — no effect whatsoever, and a waste of pellets.

What it boils down to is that during a time of inflation and serious structural problems in the banking and housing sectors, a fiscal stimulus package is not a good fix because it will put upward pressure on prices, but won’t jumpstart the economy because most investors are aware of these other problems and are not incited to start loaning money (and hence creating jobs) because of a little additional consumer spending. Indeed, the 2nd quarter GDP figures reflected this. Consumer spending rose by about (I can’t quite remember the exact figure right now) 6%, but investment spending (businesses) fell by 11%. Remember in class we said that this was the best indicator of economic health? Overall, GDP grew… but the fact that investment spending fell so sharply reflected the fact that the Spring stimulus package was just masking deeper issues. Apparently, the most important of these “issues” is that unregulated investment titans were able to buy up all that risky mortgage debt and convert it into all sorts of fancy investment packages (ask a finance person about this, or read more about it here), and then suddenly people stopped paying their loans. They were not regulated by the Fed and allowed to take more risks than commercial banks (the kind where “we” deposit money), because they did not directly handle individual deposits. This was poor rationale for not regulating them though, because although they didn’t handle “our” money directly, they did do business with commercial banks. For example, they could buy and sell investments to the “Wachovias” and the “Bank of Americas,” thereby entangling the financial institutions that we rely on to loan money (for business investment) in this mess.

Apparently, there are more than $40 trillion dollars in these “credit default swaps” flying around right now (which are basically insurance policies against the bad mortgage debt — the reason for AIG’s bankruptcy is that they were insuring risky debt and the debt went bad). There is not enough collateral to back them. When Johnny can’t pay Susie, Susie can’t pay Bobby, and Bobby can’t pay Timmy… and so on, and so on. $50 billion can’t even scratch this problem. The only thing that is going to fix it is an unprecedented move by the U.S. government (i.e., the bailout) to inject faith back into the economy. The Fed is going to have to promise loans to anyone who needs them to remain solvent. Even if they don’t actually do it, it is the promise that counts to get banks feeling safe enough to start loaning money again. Unfortunately, the Fed not only has to calm domestic investors but also investors all around the world…especially since we will rely largely (if not completely) on foreign entities to loan us the money to pay for this enormous bailout. If they think that we are a poor investment (which seems likely at this point), there wont be any loans to fund it… As you probably know, I am not a fan of large-scale government intervention, but this time, I think it is our only option — and it’s not even a guarantee. To let it continue is sure to lead to a massive recession.

In short, no, a $50 billion stimulus package is not gonna cut it, unfortunately.

How to Undo a Friend Request on Facebook

October 1st, 2008

Have you accidentally friend requested someone, or otherwise just decided you want to revert adding him or her to your Facebook friends list? There is no explicit option to take back the addition, but it is possible — you have to block him or her, then unblock (if you wish to do so). This is how it’s done through the new Facebook layout.

To block a person, hover over the Settings link (toward the top-right corner to the left of the search box), and go to Privacy Settings. From there, under Block List you should see a search box. Search the person’s name, and you can find and block them in the search results that follow. To unblock them, click the (remove) link by their name on the Privacy Settings page. The pending friend request confirmation should now be purged.

Google Chrome Freezing — A Temporary Fix

September 29th, 2008

Well, Google Chrome has impressed me enough to make it my default browser already — though normally there will be Firefox windows open as well, at least while Chrome is in its current state of development.

If you use Chrome regularly, you may have had it pause or freeze on you… especially when a tab utilizes a plugin such as Adobe Flash or Adobe Acrobat. IT enthusiast and expert Alex Wells has discovered, and it is verified to work on my setup as well, an easy method that seems to unfreeze Chrome in most cases:

When Chrome freezes, simply right-click on the Chrome icon in the Windows taskbar. Note that if you have the “Group similar taskbar buttons” option enabled (it’s enabled by default), then you must first left-click to expand the group before right-clicking.

As far as we have seen, this method has (oddly) cured the freezes in Chrome. Keeping that in mind, hopefully an update will be released that addresses the freezing issue. Since the right-clicking method seems to work, maybe it will be a pretty easy patch!

Presidential Debate on CNN (Audience Reaction Meter)

September 27th, 2008

UPDATE: I have read some comments on the web which claim it actually does use a heart rate monitor (UPDATE: I don’t think it uses that, they did a brief explanation of it last night) — along with buttons that will raise or lower influence on the graph (that’s actually how it’s done). I have also read that the data came from some kind of focus group in Columbus, Ohio (of undecided voters). Feel free to do your own research, and I will post more information as I get it.

I started typing out an answer in Yahoo! Answers, but decided to make it into a blog post instead:

The question:

“how is the Audience Reaction Meter gauged since there is no talking ar clapping allowed from the crowd during this debate?”

At first I thought it might be a clicker… but, in that case, how could they keep it in such “real” time? That would be very dependent on who clicks on what and how often… Perhaps they had a survey beforehand…

As mentioned in the answer thread, it couldn’t possibly represent clapping or noise level.

I’ll admit, it hardly seems reasonable… but one thing I thought about is some sort of heart rate monitor in addition to an ideology survey…

But in any case, I think that meter was a completely horrible idea!!!

Who gives a [insert your favorite expletive(s)] what the audience thinks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Who knows the ratio of democrats/republicans in that studio? Did they account for that sort of thing? I hope so, at least!

Don’t you think that those active lines would have put some sway on the viewer, at least some, as they watched in “real-time” how the pointless “audience” reacted?

It was a horrific and sketchy idea for them to do that. Let me stress that this act was demonstrated on CNN. Once I could not take it anymore, the channel was changed to ABC News. They lacked this “audience response meter,” thankfully.

While watching ABC, though, when a politician made either a blunder or a seemingly epic point, I found myself wondering what the “audience” on CNN might be thinking about this right now! Then I had to remind myself that it really doesn’t MATTER what the audience thinks of this. Furthermore, from where do they even gather this info and what do these lines mean? Does the red line rising on the y-axis mean that more republicans agree with the point that was just made? Needless to say, the channel was kept on ABC News.

On the topic of the debates… Did anyone else find John McCain completely out-of-line tonight? I found him to be extremely condescending to Barack Obama. I respect Obama for, with little more than a smile, putting up with a lot of crap from McCain… granted, the smile was probably out of annoyance, but McCain too showed in his colors tonight just how jealous and bitter he is over the fact that his opponent is leading in the polls.

Angel Matos Video - Kicks Referee in the Face

August 27th, 2008

This took a bit of searching to find — you won’t find it on YouTube aside from photo slideshows and Rickrolls.

The following video is of the match between Taekwondo athletes Angel Matos (Cuba) and Arman Chilmanov (Kazakhstan) during the 2008 Summer Olympics. According to the rules of the World Taekwondo Federation, athletes are allowed a maximum of one minute for a medical time-out (known as Kye-shi). Matos, who was previously in the lead, exceeded the maximum Kye-shi. Matos’ opponent Chilmanov was therefore pronounced the winner of the match. After that call was made, Matos got heated and planted a well-executed axe kick into the face of the referee, Chakir Chelbat. Both Matos and his coach, Leudis Gonzalez, now have a lifetime ban from the Olympic Games. The actual confrontation in the video starts around 2:30. You can read more about the story here.


Ktick - MyVideo

PHP Tag Cloud Remove Common Words

July 11th, 2008

If you have an application that allows a user to enter arbitrary tags for an entity, you might want to filter their tag input based on certain criteria. This tutorial assumes that you will be working with a space-separated list of tags, e.g. from a form input field. If your tag input is coming from an array, you can try $tags = implode(' ', $tag_array); to prepare it for the rest of the code presented here.

Firstly, we’ll cover the tag filter. A list of the most common English words was compiled by merging data from the following resources:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Most_common_words_in_English
http://www.askoxford.com/oec/mainpage/oec02/?view=uk
http://esl.about.com/library/vocabulary/bl1000_list1.htm
http://www.deafandblind.com/word_frequency.htm

We can look at the whole list later for reference, but to make an effective tag filter, many had to be removed by hand. Additionally, this script disregards words with less than three letters, so those were removed as well. Many search applications, including the one that inspired this coding, won’t mess with those. Here is a space-separated list of the common English-language words to be filtered:

able about after again all also and any are bad been before being between but came can cause change come could did differ different does don't down each end even every far few for form found four from get good great had has have her here him his how into its just keep let many may might more most much must near need never new next not now off one only other our out over part put said same say seem set should side some still such take than that the their them then there these they thing this three through too two upon use very was way went were what when where which while who will with would you your

Let’s use the following example for a space-separated tag string:

fluffy is freeze you Rocket don't cute boulder fry

The following PHP code will filter out the common words as well as words that contain less than three letters. It only pulls strings with alpha characters, and additionally converts all tags to lowercase:

$tag_filter = array('able', 'about', 'after', 'again', 'all', 'also', 'and', 'any', 'are', 'bad', 'been', 'before', 'being', 'between', 'but', 'came', 'can', 'cause', 'change', 'come', 'could', 'did', 'differ', 'different', 'does', 'don', 'down', 'each', 'end', 'even', 'every', 'far', 'few', 'for', 'form', 'found', 'four', 'from', 'get', 'good', 'great', 'had', 'has', 'have', 'her', 'here', 'him', 'his', 'how', 'into', 'its', 'just', 'keep', 'let', 'many', 'may', 'might', 'more', 'most', 'much', 'must', 'near', 'need', 'never', 'new', 'next', 'not', 'now', 'off', 'one', 'only', 'other', 'our', 'out', 'over', 'part', 'put', 'said', 'same', 'say', 'seem', 'set', 'should', 'side', 'some', 'still', 'such', 'take', 'than', 'that', 'the', 'their', 'them', 'then', 'there', 'these', 'they', 'thing', 'this', 'three', 'through', 'too', 'two', 'upon', 'use', 'very', 'was', 'way', 'went', 'were', 'what', 'when', 'where', 'which', 'while', 'who', 'will', 'with', 'would', 'you', 'your', );

$tags = 'fluffy is freeze you rocket don\'t cute boulder fry';
preg_match_all('/([a-zA-Z]{3,})/', $tags, $matches);
$matches[0] = array_map('strtolower', $matches[0]);
$tags = array_diff($matches[0], $tag_filter);

The $tags array would then be filtered and lowercased, producing the following output with print_r($tags):

Array
(
    [0] => fluffy
    [1] => freeze
    [3] => rocket
    [5] => cute
    [6] => boulder
    [7] => fry
)

If you need to convert it from the array back to a space-separated string, try $tags = implode(' ', $tags);. You may also of course add more words to the word list — that could come in handy with other application-specific functions such as cursing filters.

Here is the full list of common words merged from the above-stated resources, separated by spaces, including those with less than three letters:

a able about act add after again air all also am an and animal answer any are as ask at back bad be been before being between big boy build but by call came can case cause change child city close come company could country cover cross day did differ different do does don't down draw each early earth end even every eye fact far farm father feel few find first follow food for form found four from get give go good government great group grow had hand hard has have he head help her here high him his home hot house how i if important in into is it its just keep kind know land large last late learn leave left let life light like line little live long look low made make man many may me mean men might more most mother move mr mrs much must my name near need never new next night no north not now number of off office old on one only or other our out over own page part people person picture place plant play point port press problem public put read real right round run said same saw say school sea see seem self sentence set she should show side small so some sound spell stand start state still story study such sun take tell than that the their them then there these they thing think this thought three through time to too tree try turn two under up upon us use very want was water way we week well went were what when where which while who why will with woman word work world would write year you young your

Javascript Age From Birthday Calculator

June 24th, 2008

Figured this might be handy to some folks… Just enter in a birthdate (or just any date for that matter, doesn’t necessarily have to be a birthday), and it will give you the number of years that have passed since then! Why use your head when we have computers!?

Month:

Day:

Year:
(YYYY)

UNIMPORTANT NOTE: This script uses the average number of days in a year as part of its calculation. If I hear about that causing any problems I’ll look into another way of doing it, but I think it’s the most reasonable, far more so than using a whole number like 365.

The JavaScript:

function getAgeFromBday() {
  var month = document.getElementById('bdc-month').value;
  var day   = document.getElementById('bdc-day').value;
  var year  = document.getElementById('bdc-year').value;
  var bdate = new Date(year, month, day);

  if (bdate.getDate() != day || bdate.getMonth() != month || bdate.getFullYear() != year) {
    alert('That date appears to be invalid!');
    return false;
  }

  var today = new Date();
  today.setHours(0);
  today.setMinutes(0);
  today.setSeconds(0);

  if (bdate > today) {
    alert('Provided date must fall before today\'s date!');
    return false;
  }

  alert(Math.floor((today - bdate) / 31556952000));
}

The markup:

<p>
  <strong>Month:</strong><br />
  <select name="bdc-month" id="bdc-month">
    <option value="0">January</option>
    <option value="1">February</option>
    <option value="2">March</option>
    <option value="3">April</option>
    <option value="4">May</option>
    <option value="5">June</option>
    <option value="6">July</option>
    <option value="7">August</option>
    <option value="8">September</option>
    <option value="9">October</option>
    <option value="10">November</option>
    <option value="11">December</option>
  </select>
</p>
<p>
  <strong>Day:</strong><br />
  <input name="bdc-day" id="bdc-day" style="width: 15px;" type="text" />
</p>
<p>
  <strong>Year:</strong><br />
  <input name="bdc-year" id="bdc-year" style="width: 30px;" type="text" /> (YYYY)
</p>
<p>
  <button type="submit" onclick="getAgeFromBday()"><strong>DO IT</strong></button>
</p>

See also the PHP function that returns an age from a birthdate.

Drumstick spinning / twirling techniques

June 11th, 2008

This video covers only the first technique described; it is the one about which people are generally most curious. I might record some other videos that cover the other ones mentioned — and also some not mentioned — depending on how this one goes and also how motivated I might be feeling to do more.

Shortnin’ Bread - Traditional

May 18th, 2008

New recording

Put on the skillet, put on the lid
Mama gonna bake a little shortnin’ bread

DOWNLOAD (1.4MB; 1:31)

The chords and lyrics were from here, but transposed to C and I used a 7th for the V chord (so C and G7 instead of G and D, respectively). Instruments used were ukulele, mandolin, and shaker.

Background info on the song.

Peter, Paul, and Mary - River of Jordan Chords and Lyrics

March 18th, 2008
  E            E/F#         E           E/F#
I traveled the banks of the River of Jordan
   E             E/F#         F#
To find where it flows to the sea.
  F#m           F#m/G#      F#m             F#m/G#
I looked in the eyes of the cold and the hungry
      F#m       F#m/G#     F#m
And I saw I was looking at me.
A                   F#m
I wanted to know if life had a purpose
    A                        B7
And what it all means in the end.
       E         E/F#        E        E/F#
In the silence I listened to voices inside me
         E        E/F#      E
And they told me again and again.

       E/F#     B7                       E    E/F#  E
The is only one river. There is only one sea.
       E/F#          B7                        E   E/F#  E
And it flows through you, and it flows through me.
                  C#m
There is only one people. We are one and the same.
               F#7                    B7
We are all one spirit. We are all one name.
           E      E/F# E         E/F#         E    E/F#  E
We are the father,       mother, daughter and son.
         E/F#        F#7          B7
From the dawn of creation, we are one.
       E    E/F#  E
We are one.

Every blade of grass on the mountain
Every drop in the sea
Every cry of a newborn baby
Every prayer to be free
Every hope at the end of a rainbow
Every song ever sung
Is a part of the family of woman and man
And that means everyone.

We are only one river. We are only one sea.
And it flows through you, and it flows through me.
We are only one people. We are one and the same.
We are all one spirit. We are all one name.
We are the father, mother, daughter and son
From the dawn of creation, we are one.
We are one.

Chord fingering suggestions

       (Standard tuning)
          E A D G B E
          -----------
E        [0 2 2 1 0 0]
E/F#     [2 2 2 1 0 0]
F#       [2 4 4 3 2 2]
F#m      [2 4 4 2 2 2]
F#m/G#   [4 4 4 2 2 2]
A        [0 0 2 2 2 0]
B7       [x 2 1 2 0 2]
C#m      [x 4 6 6 5 4]

I believe this is the only place on the web you’ll find chords for this song. If you find another, I’d be curious to see it (I looked quite a bit). I think this is a reasonably accurate transcription, it’ll surely get you through. For the last two stanzas, just play the chords from the first two and it should fit well enough.

The inspiration for transcribing it came on a pep band CAA bus trip, watching a scene in the movie Airplane!, where Randy the flight attendant plays it to Lisa, the girl on the plane who had fallen ill.